WASHINGTON — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially declared an El Nino on Wednesday, the first time in roughly two years that the climate pattern has been in place, even as a slow-moving rain pattern dumped more than nine inches of water across parts of the Central and Southern United States and triggered flash flood emergencies from Huntsville, Alabama to Joplin, Missouri.
The dual story line — a fully declared El Nino reshaping the hurricane season outlook, and an inland flood siege already underway — captures the way the 2026 storm season is shaping up so far: less tropical, more soggy, and more dangerous for property owners who do not live near a coast.
NOAA confirms El Nino, with odds of a top-tier event jumping to 63 percent
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center issued an El Nino Advisory on June 11, citing warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific and atmospheric patterns that have now coupled with the ocean signal. The most dramatic shift since the agency’s May outlook was in the upgraded likelihood that this El Nino reaches the “very strong” tier — the highest official category — with odds jumping from 37 percent to 63 percent in a single month.
“El Nino generally results in a less active hurricane season in the U.S., and we are expecting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year,” CPC forecaster Michelle L’Heureux noted in the advisory. “However, it’s crucial to remember that a powerful hurricane can still occur even in a less active season.”
CSU trims Atlantic outlook to 11 named storms
Hours before the NOAA declaration, Colorado State University’s Tropical Weather and Climate Research team revised its 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast downward, calling for 11 named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. The April forecast had projected 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
Lead researcher Dr. Phil Klotzbach said the revision reflects roughly 60 percent of an average season — a notable departure from the past decade of overactive years driven by warmer Atlantic sea-surface temperatures.
For homeowners in coastal Florida, the Gulf Coast, and the Carolinas, the immediate read is encouraging: fewer named storms means a lower probability of a direct hit in any given week. But forecasters were quick to caution that storm intensity, not storm count, drives most of the damage. A single landfalling major hurricane in a quiet year can still cause more destruction than several brushing storms in an active one.
Central US already drenched, with more rain in the forecast
While the tropical outlook eased, the inland flooding story sharpened. Slow-moving thunderstorms repeatedly drenched the same locations across the Central US between June 5 and June 11, with rainfall rates reaching two to six inches per hour at times.
The hardest-hit areas, according to National Weather Service reports:
- Hollywood, Alabama — A Flash Flood Emergency was declared on June 7 after five to nine inches of rain fell across parts of Jackson and Madison counties. Floodwaters inundated neighborhoods east of Huntsville.
- Central Texas — Parts of Bell, Falls, McLennan, and Milam counties received more than nine inches over the weekend. Texas Game Wardens rescued at least nine people from floodwaters between Friday and Saturday.
- Joplin, Missouri — Water rescues were reported on June 8 amid rainfall rates of four inches per hour, with active life-threatening flash flooding.
- Lanesville, Indiana — A residential street turned into a river after eight inches of rain inundated the area Tuesday, with floodwaters entering structures.
- Northwest Missouri — The NWS Pleasant Hill office issued a Flash Flood Warning Wednesday night for parts of Worth, Gentry, Harrison, and Nodaway counties, with one to two inches of rain already on the ground and more expected.
The NWS Springfield, Missouri office extended a Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for a 28-county area across southeast Kansas and southern Missouri, citing potential one-inch-per-hour rain rates with localized three-inch totals.
Why El Nino and Central US flooding go together
This pairing is not a coincidence. El Nino patterns historically push the subtropical jet stream south and strengthen it, channeling moisture from the eastern Pacific across the southern tier of the United States. The signal tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing vertical wind shear in the tropics — while simultaneously fueling cooler, wetter, stormier patterns across Texas, the Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast.
The 2026 setup is textbook so far. The same upper-level pattern that is keeping the Atlantic quiet is helping deliver round after round of slow-moving thunderstorms to the Central US.
For homeowners and small property owners, the practical implication is simple: even if the hurricane forecast is encouraging, this is shaping up to be a year where inland flood risk is the bigger threat. Flash floods cause more fatalities in the United States than hurricanes in most years, and a quiet hurricane season does not change that math.
What to do this week
If you live in any of the watch or warning areas across the Central US, take the current threat seriously:
- Move vehicles to higher ground before storms arrive. Nearly all flood fatalities in the United States happen in vehicles, and just six inches of fast-moving water can sweep a car downstream.
- Stage flood protection before the rain starts, not after. Once water is in the street, it is too late to deploy barriers at low-lying doors, garages, and basement window wells.
- Sign up for real-time flood alerts at your nearest river gauge. The StormBag Flood Watch tool maps active NWS flood warnings, watches, and advisories nationwide in one view.
- Know your evacuation route. Flash flood emergencies escalate quickly, and many of this week’s rescues happened to residents who tried to drive through water that looked shallower than it was.
For property owners who want flood barriers staged before the next round of rain, StormBag sandless sandbags ship the same day from California and arrive in days, not weeks. Each one-pound dry bag expands to roughly 33 pounds of flood protection on contact with fresh water, which means a 10-pack or 25-pack can be stored flat in a closet or garage until the next storm watch goes up.
What we’re watching next
The next 24 to 48 hours: another round of slow-moving thunderstorms is expected across northern Missouri and far northeastern Kansas Wednesday night through Thursday morning. NWS forecasters at the Kansas City office are flagging a 50 to 70 percent chance of additional rounds of rain across the same saturated region by week’s end.
The next two to four weeks: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now estimates El Nino conditions are likely to persist through Northern Hemisphere autumn and into the early winter, which would keep the wet pattern across the Central and Southern US active longer than a typical June flood threat.
StormBag will continue to update this story as the situation develops. For real-time flood alerts in your area, visit our Flood Watch tool.
