Atlantic Hurricane Season Opens With Forecasters Watching Central Gulf
CHICO, Calif. — June 1, 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially began Monday with no named storms on the map but with private and government forecasters already tracking two areas of interest — one in the central Gulf of Mexico and one off Mexico's Pacific coast — that bear watching over the next 7 to 14 days.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting a below-normal season, calling for 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes through November 30. The agency cited an emerging El Niño pattern as the primary reason activity is expected to run beneath the long-term average.
What forecasters are watching
“While we always monitor the tropics for potential threats, we'll be keeping a close eye on the central and eastern Gulf and the southwestern Atlantic,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert, said in a forecast briefing issued late last week. “Climatologically, this region can experience early-season tropical development.”
DaSilva said wind shear is currently strong enough to suppress development in the short term, but added that the window of greatest concern arrives in the second week of June, when the Madden-Julian Oscillation — a pulse of tropical moisture that circles the globe every 30 to 60 days — is forecast to move over the Caribbean and Gulf.
“The upward motion zone of the MJO is forecast to be in the eastern Pacific during the first seven to 10 days of June and then move on to the Caribbean, Gulf and southwest Atlantic centered on the second week to the middle of June,” DaSilva said. Sea surface temperatures across the area are running “within a few degrees of 80 degrees, which is near the threshold typically needed for tropical development.”
The National Hurricane Center said Monday that no tropical development is expected in the Atlantic basin over the next seven days. In the Eastern Pacific, however, the agency placed development chances for one disturbance off Mexico at 90 percent.
Why the early-June Gulf window matters
Most Atlantic hurricane activity occurs from August through early October, when warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and an active African monsoon combine. June is historically quieter — on average, one named storm forms in the Atlantic basin every one to two Junes, according to The Weather Channel.
But when June storms do form, they tend to form close to land. The Gulf of Mexico, the northwestern Caribbean, and the western Atlantic near the mid-Atlantic states are the most common early-season birthplaces. That short distance from formation to landfall is what concerns forecasters this week.
At least two named storms have formed in five of the last six Junes, according to Weather Channel data. The last Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in the lower 48 states during June was Hurricane Bonnie in 1986 — 40 years ago.
Rain bands already active
Independent of any tropical development, a stalled frontal boundary across the Southeast has produced multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over the past week. The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Watauga County, North Carolina reported precipitable water values of 1.50 to 2.00 inches in late May — two to three standard deviations above normal — with rainfall rates reaching 2 to 4 inches per hour in the strongest storms.
The Weather Prediction Center has maintained Marginal and Slight Risk areas for excessive rainfall across portions of the Southern Plains, the Tennessee Valley, and the Carolinas through midweek. The NWS office in New Orleans and Baton Rouge is also expecting scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours possible.
What to watch
The next significant forecast update from the National Hurricane Center is scheduled for Tuesday morning, with twice-daily Tropical Weather Outlooks running through November 30. Residents along the Gulf and southwest Atlantic coasts should monitor those updates closely over the next two weeks, particularly if a low pressure system organizes over the central Gulf as the MJO pulse arrives.
NOAA's full 2026 hurricane outlook will be updated in early August, when the agency typically revises its named-storm range based on observed conditions through July.
About flood preparedness
FEMA and the NWS continue to advise residents in flood-prone areas of the Gulf Coast and Southeast to review their home flood plans before any named system develops. Standard guidance includes knowing whether a property sits in a designated flood zone, confirming flood insurance is in force (NFIP policies have a 30-day waiting period), and pre-staging barrier materials such as sandbags or modern alternatives.
StormBag, the rapid-deploy sandbag manufactured in Chico, Calif. and approved by FEMA and DHS, is one of several flood barrier options available to homeowners; the bags activate with fresh water in roughly three minutes and stack to form a barrier comparable in height to a traditional sandbag. The StormBag Flood Watch tool provides free real-time NWS flood alerts by ZIP code.
This is a developing story. Updates will follow as forecast confidence increases.