The Rain Stopped. The Rivers Didn't: Record White River Crest Moves Downstream Toward Indianapolis
The White River at Anderson, Indiana set a record crest Thursday night — the highest water in more than a century. That crest is now falling. That is not good news for anyone downstream, because the water did not disappear. It is moving, and federal gauge forecasts show it arriving in Marion County by Saturday morning.
This is the phase of a flood event that catches the most people off guard. The sirens are quiet, the sky is clearing in places, and the rivers are still rising. Here is where the water is right now, where it is going, and why river flooding is the one kind of flood that gives you a schedule.
How much rain actually fell
Wednesday's totals in east central Indiana were historic. NWS Indianapolis reports the highest two-day storm total received was 11.50 inches near New Lisbon in Henry County, with 11.24 inches northwest of New Castle and 11.23 inches southwest of it. Modoc in Randolph County took 10.69 inches. Springport, in Delaware County, took 10.27 inches. CNN meteorologists characterized parts of Indiana as having seen a 1-in-1,000 year rainfall event.
Friday made six straight days of storms across the Midwest. More than 200,000 homes and businesses were without power in Indiana early Friday, part of over 300,000 still dark across the region for a third consecutive day. We covered the derecho that started all of this — and why a power outage is itself a flood risk — in Wednesday's report.
The emergency declarations stacked up fast
Gov. Mike Braun declared a statewide disaster emergency Thursday and mobilized the Indiana National Guard, citing flooding, severe weather, tornadic activity and a derecho beginning August 11. Local declarations followed underneath it: Yorktown in Delaware County and the city of Anderson in Madison County both declared local disaster emergencies Thursday, and Hamilton County commissioners declared a state of emergency Friday morning with a travel watch and more than 30 roads closed, including State Road 37 and U.S. 31.
Crews ran water rescues across Delaware, Madison, Wayne and Henry counties. Anderson issued evacuation orders along the swelling White River. More than 300 animals were evacuated from a flooded shelter. In Ohio, Gov. DeWine said storms forced roughly 375 people to evacuate in the western part of the state. Several water rescues were also reported in northern Knott County, Kentucky.
Where the water is right now
This is the part worth writing down. These are readings from NOAA's National Water Prediction Service, the same federal gauge network that feeds official river forecasts, as of Friday afternoon:
- White River at Anderson (Madison County) — 22.64 feet at 3:30 p.m. EDT Friday. Major flood stage there begins at 19 feet. It crested above 24 feet Thursday night, a record for more than 100 years, and is now forecast to fall to about 20.8 feet by Friday evening. Still major flooding, but past peak.
- White River at Noblesville (Hamilton County) — 22.85 feet at 3:45 p.m. EDT Friday, with major flood stage at 22 feet. Unlike Anderson, Noblesville was still rising, forecast to reach about 23.5 feet by Friday evening.
- White River at the 82nd Street Bridge near Nora, on the north side of Indianapolis — 15.08 feet at 4:00 p.m. EDT Friday, in minor flood stage. The federal forecast has it reaching 19.7 feet by 8 a.m. Saturday, which crosses into major flood stage at that gauge.
Read those three in order and you can see the flood wave physically traveling down the channel. Anderson took the record and is draining. Noblesville is taking it now, which is exactly why Hamilton County declared an emergency Friday morning rather than Wednesday. Marion County gets it overnight.
Verify these yourself before acting on anything — the gauges update continuously, and a forecast issued at 4 p.m. is not the one that matters at 10 p.m. Our free Flood Watch tool pulls live NWS watches, warnings and river gauge levels for your own county.
Why river flooding is different — and why that should change what you do
Flash flooding is the kind everyone fears, and reasonably so: Wednesday in east central Indiana, the warning window was measured in minutes. There is no version of that event where you calmly prepare.
River flooding is the opposite, and almost nobody exploits it. A river crest is the most predictable natural disaster there is. The water is already on the ground upstream. The channel geometry is known. The travel time is known. That is why the National Water Prediction Service can publish a stage forecast in feet, for a specific gauge, 12 to 48 hours out — and why the Nora forecast above can say 19.7 feet by 8 a.m. Saturday with real confidence.
You are being handed a countdown. The failure mode is not a lack of warning. It is that most homeowners have never opened a river gauge page in their lives, do not know their flood stage number, and take the end of the rain as the end of the event.
Three things this argues for, in order:
- Know your gauge and your number. If you live near a river or creek, find the nearest gauge and learn what stage floods your street specifically — not the county, your street. Neighbors who have been through it usually know it to the foot. That number turns an abstract forecast into a decision.
- Understand which alert you are actually under. A flood watch, a flood warning, a flash flood warning and a flash flood emergency demand four different responses, and the words are easy to blur together at 11 p.m. We laid out what each one means in our guide to NWS flood alerts.
- Deploy on the forecast, not on the water. If the crest arrives at 8 a.m., barriers go up the night before. Waiting until water is visible means working in the dark, in current, with the hardware store closed.
Where StormBag fits in a river event
The logistics problem with traditional sandbags is at its worst exactly now. Sand piles are picked over after six days of storms, the roads to reach them are closed, and 30-plus closures in one county means a truckload of sand may simply not be gettable. Filling and hauling sandbags in the hours before a crest is hard, slow work at the moment you have the least time and the least help.
StormBag ships flat and dry at about one pound per bag, so a case sits on a garage shelf until the week it matters. Submerge a bag in fresh water and it expands to roughly 33 pounds and a full 6-inch barrier height in under three minutes — no sand, no shovel, no truck. In a river event where you have a published crest time, that turns preparation into a one-person job you can finish before dark.
Two things worth doing before the next round: run the numbers on how many bags your doorways actually need so you are not guessing, and read the room-by-room staging guide — storing them next to the entry points they defend is most of the benefit.
See StormBag pricing and pack sizes, or start with the full flood protection hierarchy if you want to know what to fix first.
The weekend forecast, and a quieter Atlantic
The heavy rain axis was expected to sit over Iowa and northwestern Illinois into Friday night, where more than 5 inches could fall in the hardest-hit areas and isolated totals could top 8 inches. Saturday shifts the main corridor into northern Illinois and Wisconsin, through northern Indiana and Ohio, and into parts of the central Appalachians. Totals there are forecast to be lower, but intense downpours on ground that has no capacity left can renew flooding quickly.
The tropics moved the other direction this week, and it is worth being honest about that. On Wednesday we noted the National Hurricane Center giving a central Atlantic wave an 80 percent chance of development. That system, now designated AL92, ran into hostile conditions. In the 2 p.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC put it about 350 miles east of the Windward Islands and cut its odds to 10 percent through both 48 hours and seven days, saying it "is moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air." Development is now described as highly unlikely — though the NHC still warns that "strong gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday."
Attention shifts to AL94, a wave more than 1,000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, at 30 percent through 48 hours and 40 percent through seven days. Conditions favor some development in the next few days before it may run into strong upper-level winds next week. Nothing there threatens land yet.
The short version
East central Indiana took up to 11.50 inches of rain in two days. The White River at Anderson set a record crest above 24 feet Thursday night, and that water is now moving downstream — Noblesville was still rising Friday afternoon in major flood stage, and the gauge north of Indianapolis is forecast to hit major flood stage by 8 a.m. Saturday. A statewide disaster emergency is in effect, the National Guard is mobilized, more than 200,000 Indiana customers are without power, and another round of rain arrives this weekend.
If you are downstream of any of this, the rain ending is not the all-clear. Find your gauge, learn your number, and put your barriers up on the forecast rather than on the water.
